Predicting future behaviour from past events: A magician’s view

In recruitment of new staff an often used golden rule often is that past behaviour is an indication of future behaviour. Businesses rely on reference checks or even Google searches to find out as much as they can about their potential new staff. But, is past behaviour really a good proxy for predicting future behaviour?

A magician’s view

The silent part of the American magician’s duo Penn & Teller broke his usual silence and vow of secrecy when he explained a classical magic trick to a gathering of consciousness scholars.

Teller showed that magicians can use the propensity of the human mind to seek patterns by skilfully changing the method during the routine. Teller beautifully illustrates that in human behaviour, the past is in no way a reliable approach to predicting the future.

Predicting behaviour in recruitment

it is not logical to think that past behaviour is an indication of future behaviour

We have to be careful when judging a person through second hand information gained from referees, Facebook searches and other forms of overt espionage. People are not billiard balls that operate in accordance with laws of physics. People have free will and can change their behaviour depending on the circumstances they find themselves in. Most importantly, we can learn from our mistakes and grow as people by learning from them. Not hiring somebody who has made a mistake in the past could mean that you miss out on hiring a person with a high level of maturity and an ability to adapt. Therefore, when judging a person, keep in mind the words of Roman poet Horace: “Non sum quals eram”—I am not who I once was.

The Wonder of Religion

Tommy Wonder (1953-2006).

Tommy Wonder (1953–2006).

Dutch Magician Tommy Wonder provides an interesting insight into the nature of religion in Volume I of his  The Books of Wonder (1996).

He gives advice to magicians on what to do when a spectator discovers—or beliefs to discover—the secret to a magic routine:

“I’ve frequently wondered why people sometimes come up with painfully silly solutions and don’t stop to realize it. If they would give the matter more thought they would quickly see that their solution couldn’t possibly work. I believe their reasoning runs something like this: The moment a spectator sees a magical effect that he [sic] doesn’t understand, he is confronted with a problem, a problem that stands square in front of him like a granite boulder … Now if the spectator contrives some solution, in a way he has enabled himself to move the problem. He can roll this boulder out of his way, so that he is no longer confronted by it. The problem seems to be solved … his mind throws a big party. He’s solved the problem!”

This observation from the every day practice of a professional magician shows an interesting psychological mechanism at work. Somebody is presented with a seemingly unsolvable problem, which creates a conflict in the mind. As soon as a solution is presented, no matter how improbable, the conflict seems to disappear. Wonder continues:

“Because his mind is dancing and celebrating its victory, it never stops to realize that it only moved the problem … it still exists in another place.”

The psychological mechanism at work is a process of cognitive dissonance. When a magician makes a ball disappear, there are two observations which seem to have no causal relationship—the ball is there and the ball is gone. It is the job of the magician to hide the actual cause—this causeless event is the magical effect. Humans are inclined to remove any tension between dissonant observations, even if this means inventing miraculous connections.

Cognitive dissonance is often used as an explanation for the emergence of religion in pre-scientific cultures. The idea being that ancient people experienced a cognitive dissonance in their experience of natural occurrences, such as the daily disappearance and re-appearance of the sun. The explanations created to relieve the tension is what we now know as religion. This is, however, only a partial explanation. Although much of religion is provides explanations for the way the world is, for those who follow it religion is also a vehicle to provide meaning to life, something that cannot be provided by science.

Does all cognitive dissonance need to be resolved? Why can we not live with the tension of not knowing—accepting that there are questions for which we do not have an answer, or for which there even might not be an answer? Tommy Wonder touches on this when he argues that magicians should aim to defuse the cognitive dissonance experienced by the spectator, creating suspension of disbelief and giving rise to a feeling that magic really exists—even if it is only for a fleeting moment, as our rational mind quickly takes over, trying to resolve the dissonance.

Theatrical Magic and the Sciences

Perspectives on Magic: A book on Science and ConjuringThe past three years I have been studying the relationship between magic and science and studied hundreds of articles about the performance of magic tricks from many different fields of science. From this I found that the relationship between magic and the sciences is bidirectional.

Firstly, magicians use the principles of science to create the illusion of magic. They use the principles of psychology, physics, linguistics, engineering and so on to perform their tricks. The second relationship between magic and science is that Scientists study what magicians do. For example, psychologists try to find out how people can be deceived, occupational therapists try to help people improve people’s lives by teaching them magic tricks and scholars in the field of gender studies develop ideas on why so few women are involved in the performance of magic.

For my Perspectives on Magic project I have created an annotated bibliography of scientific research into theatrical magic. The table below provides an overview of the relationship between theatrical magic and the different fields of science. The middle column shows the fields of science used by magicians to create the illusion of magic. The last column shows the fields of science which have studied magic performances. Click on the links to view the bibliography for each field of study.

Theatrical magic and science

Sciences Magic Trick Methods Study magic and magicians
Physical Sciences Chemistry
Physics
Life Sciences Health sciences
Neuroscience
Ophthalmology
Physiology Physiology
Social Sciences Anthropology
Business studies
Education
Gender Studies
Film Studies
History
Law
Library Science
Linguistics Linguistics
Performance Studies Performance Studies
Psychology Psychology
Sociology
Applied Sciences Engineering Computer programming
Dentistry
Education
Nursing
Occupational Therapy
Formal Sciences Mathematics
Information Theory

Conjuring Literature: The Magic Library

Many magicians are avid collectors of magic tricks, DVDs, books and anything else related to their passion. Some are quite fanatical and amass thousands of volumes on the art of deception, like the Conjuring Arts Research Centre in New York shown in this video. Several such libraries exist in the world, including some academic libraries have also created collections on conjuring.

The Magic Library

Beth Kattelman from the department of theatre at Ohio State University published an article on one of these collections in Theatre Survey, published by the American Society for Theatre Research.1. Some notable academic collections of magic books and paraphernalia in Australia are the Will Alma Conjuring Collection at the State Library of Victoria in Melbourne and the Robbins Stage Magic Collection, State Library of New South Wales.2 Some other academic institutions with a magic library:

Parallel to the literature about magic by magicians there exists a sub-genre of scientific writings from many fields of endeavour. These books and journal articles are mainly read by the colleagues of the professionals and scientists that created this work. Historians, cultural scientists, psychologists, occupational therapists, neuroscientists, film researchers and so on have deliberated on the role, workings and practical purpose of conjuring.

Most of this work is, however, locked behind pay walls and publishers charge exorbitant prices for a single ten page journal article. Over the past three years I have extensively researched this literature and created an online annotated bibliography on the science of conjuring to help unlock this vast resource.

  1. Kattelman, Beth A.  (2008) The American Museum of Magic/Lund Memorial Library and Other Resources on Magic and Conjuring. Theatre Survey (49) 2: 285-293. DOI: 10.1017/S0040557408000161 []
  2. Awcock, F. (2004). Will Alma, mas­ter magi­cian. The La Trobe Journal, 74, 15–24; Gal­lacher, L. (2006). Cast­ing the spell: Magic in books. The La Trobe Journal, 78, 71–87. []

Science of Magic: Asking the right questions

Science in its broadest definition contains a wide range of disciplines. Social scientists seek to understand humanity while in the exact or natural sciences, researchers seek to understand nature. In the applied sciences these theories are brought to practical use. To fully understand the world a multidisciplinary view is required, no one science can provide us with a full understanding.

This is also the case in the specialist research regarding the science of magic. Researchers from a wide range of disciplines view magic shows in many different ways, each seeking to understand this quaint performance art in their own perspectives. View the The Science of Magic slide show below for an overview.

For an overview of the different answers scientists have provided to these questions, read the online annotated bibliography.

The Manager and the Magician

Managers are magiciansEvery manager would love to have a wand and make things happen magically. Although this vision is only a dream, managers do have a lot in common with magicians. Both the manager and the magician aim to create a world different from the one we know. Both the manager and the magician construct a new reality; the magician using the stage and the manager using the workplace. Another similarity is that many magicians carved out a market in the corporate sector by providing entertainment at Christmas parties and similar occasions. But the similarities don’t stop here.

As an amateur magician I collect academic journal articles about conjuring and found two interesting papers exploring the similarities between management and magic.

… a wand and make things happen magically.

David Pollitt described how the management team of a large retailer was invited for a magic show as part of their professional development. Magicians follow rigid procedures to create the illusion of magic and the management team were encouraged to do the same to achieve results. Magician Richard Pinner performed a Russian Roulette inspired trick to illustrate that in customer contact there is only one chance to get it right.1

Professor’s of management Joe Dobson and Terence Krell published a paper on how to use magic tricks to teach organisational behaviour.2 They use magic tricks in the classroom to show that withholding information, like a magician withholds the methods from spectators, can create a power difference. So called forcing techniques commonly used by magicians are an illustration of the fact that our free will is more often than not bound and limited by the context in which we operate.

Perception is not reality

Although a magic wand is not a reliable management tool, these examples from academic literature show that professionals can learn from magic as it provides valuable lessons in psychology.3 Most importantly the magician’s ability to distort reality is a reminder that our perception is fragile and that we should always find out the facts, rather than relying on perception. The biggest difference between a manager and a magician is that a magician manages perception to create the illusion of a new reality. Managers focusing on perception in reality will find that they are creating an illusion.

  1. Pollitt, David (2006). ‘Communication campaign conjures up success for Homebase: Magician theme makes for memorable launch of guides’, Human Resource Management International Digest 14(5): 38-39. doi: 10.1108/09670730610678271. []
  2. Krell, Terence C. and Dobson, Joseph J. (1999) The use of magic in teaching organisational behaviour. Journal of Management Education-23: 44-52. doi: 10.1177/105256299902300105. []
  3. K. Fatehi-Sedeh (1980) A card game as a teaching aid. Journal of Management Education 5(3): 57-60. doi: 10.1177/105256298000500316. []

The Myth of Multitasking

The myth of multitaskingA popular buzzword heard around water coolers in offices spanning the globe is multitasking. The presumed ability to do more than one thing at the same time is seen as a the hallmark of a great employee.

People imagine themselves as multi-armed Hindu goddesses or gods of efficiency, aiming to manage their time better by doing many things at the same time.

Unfortunately multitasking is self- deception. Multitasking is, in the words of psychiatrist Edward Hallowell a mythical activity in that people believe they can do two or more tasks simultaneously just as effectively as one.1

Multitasking is a mythical activity

Unfortunately, the feeble human mind is not able to focus attention on more than one thing simultaneously. This is no better illustrated than by a magician’s ability to deceive people, wonderfully demonstrated by Tommy Wonder in the video below. Magicians use techniques based on our limitations in attending to more than one thing simultaneously to create the illusion of magic.2 This practical knowledge is supported by neuroscientific research. A neural network in the frontal lobe acts as a bottleneck of information processing that severely limits our ability to multitask. Not only do tasks take longer, but the quality is also reduced.3 What managers can learn from magicians and cognitive scientists is that we should focus on only one task at a time.

  1. Edward M. Hallowell. Crazy Busy: Overstretched, Overbooked, and About to Snap! Strategies for Handling Your Fast-Paced Life. 2007. Ballantine Books. []
  2. Martinez-Conde, Susana and Macknik, Stephen L. (2010) Sleight of mind. New York: Henry Bolt. []
  3. Paul Dux et al. (2006). Isolation of a central bottleneck of information processing with time-resolved fMRI. Neuron, 52: 1109–1120. doi:10.1016/j.neuron.2006.11.009. []

Retail Theatre

Retailers around the world are scratching their heads how to seduce customers to come back into their shops. Financial woes and competition from online stores has seen a decline in retail turnover. In Australia some shopkeepers even criticised their own customers because they prefer to purchase their goods online. Online retailers indeed have a price advantage over local retailers, but the real cause of why people prefer to shop online lies, however, deeper than price alone.

Since my undergraduate days I enjoy smoking the occasional cigar. Retailing tobacco has its own complexities, given the health implications of excessive smoking. The marketing principles governing their sales are, however, the same.

Retail theatre - Visiting Wum Otten's cigar shop in Maastricht

Visiting Wum Otten’s cigar shop in Maastricht

My favourite cigar shop is located in my former home town of Maastricht in the Netherlands and is owner by cigar aficionado Wum Otten. At my first visit to his shop I was fascinated by the thousands of boxes and smoking paraphernalia lining the walls. I asked Wum for my then favourite brand, but he quickly persuaded me to try something different. He shuffled around the boxes and produced a single cigar for me to try. Ever since that first visit I have faithfully bought almost all my cigars from his shop. Until I moved to Australia.

Being thousands of kilometres away from my favourite cigar store I am stranded with boring tobacco shops in Australia. Alas, I purchase my cigars online as the places available to me have no knowledge of the product and do not provide an interesting experience. The shops are dull – only partially caused by strict anti smoking legislation – and staff are unmotivated. Buying cigars is no longer an enjoyable experience so I prefer the utility of online shopping.

A popular development in marketing discourse is the idea of providing an experience. Retail has been compared with a theatrical experience.1 Retail theatre relies on correspondences between shopping and the stage: the backdrop and props formed by retail displays and merchandise with salespeople as actors, customers as spectators and the shop floor is the stage. Salient difference between a shop and a theatre is that there is no fourth wall, no imaginary sheet of glass between the actors and the spectators and no proscenium. The customers are not just passive spectators, but are active and integral components of the play.

Therein also lies the most important difference between online retailing and brick-and-mortar shops. Online retailing only engages the eyes and maybe the ears, but physical retailing provides a full sensory and social experience. Online stores have no smell, you can not touch the goods. There are also no people, which is basically a negative, but is often considered a positive.

Well designed physical shops with motivated staff provide a holistic experience that can only be beaten by online retailers on price and many case studies in marketing show that price is only one factor in purchase decisions. Recent research shows that a positive mood, influenced by motivated retail staff and a rich environment, have a positive impact on shopping behaviour.2 All the more reason for retail managers to look at their shop as a theatre and positively influence the customer experience.

  1. See for example: Kim Harris, Richard Harris and Steve Baron (2001) Customer participation in retail service: Lessons from Brecht International Journal of Retail & Distribution Management (29)8/9: 359-370. []
  2. Paul M. Herr, Christine M. Page, Bruce E. Pfeiffer and Derick F. Davis (2012) Affective Influences on Evaluative Processing, Journal of Consumer Research (Published online 13 June 2011). []

The Magic of Marketing

The magic of marketingWhat do marketing and conjuring have in common? Some might say that both fields of human endeavour use deception to reach their objectives. Marketers promise a world in which consumers can be beautiful and live the life of the rich and famous. Magicians deceive by presenting a world in which spectators are asked to believe that the laws of nature can be suspended.

Marketers and magicians have, however, more in common then the creation of impossible worlds of universal beauty and magic. There are in fact four areas where magic shows and marketing overlap.1

Special techniques

Firstly, to be able to create the illusion of perfect or enchanted worlds, both marketers and conjurers need to use special techniques, hidden from consumers and spectators. Magicians spend many hours perfecting manual dexterity to create the illusion of magic. Marketers use special techniques to, for example, create the illusion that food looks fresh, even after ours in the spotlight of a photo studio.

Perception psychology

The use of perception psychology is the second correspondence. Most stage illusions are, just like advertisements, based on the fact that our mind makes inferences based on perceptual clues. We are led to believe that pretty girls can actually be cut in half and restored just like we are led to believe that using the right deodorant will make you more attractive.

Attention management

Penultimate, both marketers and magicians use attention management. These are psychological tools to ensure that consumers actually remember advertisements or that spectators only looks at the narrative aspects of the performance. In conjuring this is mostly called misdirection, which is the technique to ensure spectators do not perceive the mechanical workings of a trick. In marketing this is important because in a hyper-competitive world attracting attention from consumers is very difficult.

Entertainment

Finally presentation and entertainment are important in both conjuring and marketing. Both are forms of theatre. A well designed shop, website, supermarket and so on is a like stage. The most successful brands in the world understand and excel at this. The most important aspect of a magic performance or a marketing exchange is that the consumer has a positive experience.

The use of deception in marketing

Theatrical magic is based on deception, using the four principles outlined above. Using deception in marketing is considered unethical, while using deception in a magic show is accepted. There exists a social contract between the magician and the audience that deception will be used to entertain them. But also in marketing there is an implicit understanding by consumers that communication paints a positive picture and does not provide the whole truth. Just like a magician does not reveal the secrets, neither does a marketer point out the negative aspects of their offering.

  1. Thanks to Australian magician Simon Coronel whose show Manipulations provided me with this insight. []

Misdirection in Business Presentations

? Kenneth Man | Dreamstime.comIn a recent blog entry for Harvard Business Review, Jerry Weissman argued that misdirection is for magicians, not for presenters.

Misdirection is one of the few words of the specialist magician’s vocabulary that have made it into common vernacular.1 It refers to an essential technique in sleight of hand conjuring to distract the audience so that the actions of the magician that are the real cause of the magic can not be perceived. Some contemporary magicians no longer use the term misdirection but prefer ‘attention management’ to indicate that that the audience is directed towards the narrative of the magic trick instead of the technique.

This technique is not only used by magicians, but basically all forms of the performing arts. Some even argue that misdirection is an essential skill in everyday human interaction.2 Erving Goffman describes human interaction in a theatrical metaphor and emphasised the importance of managing impressions people have of each other.

Any good presenter is deeply involved in managing the attention of the audience away from the less important aspects of the presentation and focuses the attention to the important parts. In the Powerpoint era, beautifully designed slides can be used to give credence to an otherwise weak argument. The summarised and seemingly well flowing information hides gaps in knowledge and insecurities of the presenter.

We all require misdirection in our daily and professional lives to construct who we are in accordance with our ideal self. People holding corporate positions, for example, communicate through clothing and are, according to Goffman:

… blinding themselves and others to the fact that they hold their jobs partly because they look like executives, not because they can work like executives.

Goffman’s ideas might seem a pessimistic interpretation of human interaction, but deception is part of life because social reality is subjective. The manager has become an archetype of contemporary society. The manager is the prime example of homo economicus, the rational thinking problem solver that always seeks to maximise benefit, independent of social reality. This is, however, only an ideal that many of us strive to and we all play a role in the great theatre of life. This process occurs subconsciously and is a universal human trait.

Business presentations are a form of theatre even more so. Brief monologues designed to convince the listener that the presenter’s ideas should be implemented. Misdirection is a valid and natural way to create the ideal self of the lucid manager and convince people with your presentations. This post is, however, not an invitation to deceive in business presentations. Misdirection only works when it is subtle and skilfully applied.

  1. A. S. Fleischman (1949), Words in modern magic, American Speech (24)1, pp. 38–42. []
  2. Erving Goffman (1959), The performance of self in everyday life, Anchor Books. []